November 2nd 2020 Update
There is one day until polls open for the final day of in-person voting.
Political violence and voter intimidation ramped up over the weekend, prodded by President Trump and his children. In central Texas, a caravan of armed Trump supporters in trucks swarmed a Biden/Harris campaign bus and rammed a volunteer vehicle at highway speeds. In New Jersey and New York, Trump supporters in caravans stopped highway traffic and bridge traffic for unclear reasons. In north Texas, a caravan of Trump supporters in trucks for some reason guided by the police, attempted to intimidate voters in a minority neighborhood, but were angrily challenged by residents of that neighborhood. Police, fortunately, restrained themselves from attacking the minorities. The same cannot be said of police in Alamance County, North Carolina, where police pepper sprayed marchers to the polls, not allowing them to vote.
The president gave some indication that he would not “prematurely declare victory” on Tuesday night before votes were counted, but instead would use the time it takes votes to be counted after polls close as a chance to send legal advisors to challenge votes being counted in the courts. This is of particular relevance in Pennsylvania, where large numbers of Absentee ballots will be counted because of the failure of organized COVID response, the ban on counting to start before election day by the Republican legislature, the slowdown of mail delivery by Postmaster General Trump appointee (and owner of competitive services) Louis Dejoy, voter intimidation in the Philadelphia area specifically promoted by Trump, and the likelihood of a Supreme Court majority, now joined by Amy Barrett, that indicated a willingness to shut down vote counting because it takes too long.
Nevertheless, the numbers are stacked massively against Trump, and he has few opportunities to win the election legitimately. There is effectively no chance for him to win thee popular vote, and even the electoral college is weighted heavily against him as polls show and early voting surveys support consistent leads by Biden for states amounting to 350 electoral college votes, well above the 270 required to win.
The only clear avenues for a Trump win through electoral challenges that eliminate large numbers of votes, particularly in Pennsylvania and Florida, the most likely tipping point states, which would stretch well beyond Tuesday. Thus early indications of a winner are likely to come from some combination of North Carolina, a clear Florida result, Texas, or Ohio, who all report counts Tuesday night and do not continue into the week. With wins in NC and FL, or an very early Texas report alone, it would be clear that Biden will be the next President.
